Abstract
This paper considers different techniques of operating with fuzzy probability estimates of relevant random events in decision making tasks. The recalculation of posterior probabilities of states of nature based on the information provided by indicator events is performed using a fuzzy version of Bayes’ theorem. The choice of an optimal decision is made on the basis of fuzzy expected value maximisation.
Highlights
The theory of decision making under risk is a welldeveloped research and applied area
This paper has considered a technique for choosing decisions under risk in a fuzzy environment
Methods of fuzzy arithmetic enable successive execution of all operations related to the choice of an optimal decision
Summary
The theory of decision making under risk is a welldeveloped research and applied area. Effective tools aimed at modelling the initial situations as well as numerous choice criteria are developed that enable determination of optimal decisions for different systems of preferences of decision makers and different attitude to risk. The whole powerful apparatus successfully performs in situations when all factors of the task are set in the deterministic form. The task of this paper is to represent techniques of decision making under risk in a fuzzy environment when all or some factors of the task are given in the fuzzy form
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