Onset, advance and withdrawal of southwest monsoon over Indian subcontinent: A study from precipitable water measurement using ground based GPS receivers

Abstract

Southwest monsoon (SWM) normally sets over Kerala by 1st June. It subsequently advances northwards and covers the entire country by 15th July. Prior knowledge of determination of date of onset of monsoon (DOM) is vital for many applications. However, accurate determination of DOM avoiding false or ‘bogus’ onset still remains a challenge to meteorological community. An incorrect identification of onset may lead to declaration of early onset. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has traditionally adopted an objective method to declare onset and withdrawal of monsoon based on rainfall over some specific stations in addition to wind field and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) from a bounded region. An augmentation of existing criteria of monsoon onset using high temporal resolution tropospheric precipitable water (PW) content over a station obtained through ground based GPS receiver is proposed. It has been shown that variation of PW content is an indicator of the state of monsoon and can potentially be included in operational criteria for declaring onset and withdrawal of monsoon. In the paper, we present daily variation of PW during SWM at five stations viz. Chennai, Kolkata, Guwahati, Mumbai and Delhi. The superposed epoch analysis of PW variation for 13 days with respect to arrival and withdrawal date of SWM reveals that over Kolkata at the time of arrival of monsoon the PW (mm)/SD (Standard Deviation) increases from 48.62/2.5 (day −6) to 61.4/1.9 (day 0) and on withdrawal it decreases from 48.62/4.56 (day −6) to 22.55mm/4.0 (day 0). Similarly in Guwahati, Mumbai and Delhi the value of PW/SD increase from 53.81/4.2, 43.10/7.2 and 44.6/5.0mm to 62.74/1.5, 62.09/1.6 and 61.88/2.3mm and on withdrawal it reduces to 27.12/4.2, 25.94/2.6 and 20.46/4.6mm respectively. It is also noticed that there is a sharp variation of PW from day -2 to day 0, which indicates GPS PW can be considered as a precursor for monsoon arrival and withdrawal.