Only strong short-term contrarian effect exists in Chinese stock market: The role of the T+1 trading mechanism

Abstract

We use an alternative sorting method which groups stocks into return intervals rather than percentiles to test the relationship between the T+1 trading mechanism and the short-term contrarian effect in the China's A-share market. Our sample period is from January 2010 to December 2020. China's stock market exhibits a significant contrarian effect in daily, weekly, and monthly frequencies, while the momentum effect is not significant. This paper argues that the special T+1 trading mechanism of China's stock market is the reason for this typical anomaly. The essence of the T+1 trading mechanism is a marketability put option, and this paper takes the volatility as the core of the analysis. This study shows that stock market volatility has a significant impact on the overnight return, with higher volatility leading to a higher discount. Through different daily, weekly, and monthly frequency groupings, the study finds that the winner's portfolio would reverse significantly in the next period. Under the T+1 mechanism, the high return stock portfolio is also characterized by high volatility and high turnover. The contrarian effect of China's stock market is unique in that both the winner's portfolio and the loser's portfolio will fall, but the winner's portfolio will fall more. The reversal of the winner's portfolio dominates in the entire market. The paper provides a new explanation for the contrarian effect and adds a unique explanation to the study of worldwide contrarian effect.