Abstract
In the era of mobile internet, information dissemination has made a new leap in speed and in breadth. With the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the COVID-19 rumor diffusion that is not limited by time and by space often becomes extremely complex and fickle. It is also normal that a piece of unsubstantiated news about COVID-19 could develop to many versions. We focus on the stagnant role and information variants in the process of rumor diffusion about COVID-19, and through the study of variability and silence in the dissemination, which combines the effects of stagnation phenomenon and information variation on the whole communication system in the circulation of rumors about COVID-19, based on the classic rumor SIR (Susceptible Infected Recovered) model, we introduce a new concept of “variation” and “oyster”. The stability of the new model is analyzed by the mean field equation, and the threshold of COVID-19 rumor propagation is obtained later. According to the results of the simulation experiment, whether in the small world network or in the scale-free network, the increase of the immure and the silent probability of the variation can effectively reduce the speed of rumor diffusion about COVID-19 and is conducive to the dissemination of the truth in the whole population. Studies have also shown that increasing the silence rate of variation can reduce COVID-19 rumor transmission more quickly than the immunization rate. The interesting discovery is that at the same time, a higher rumor infection rate can bring more rumors about COVID-19 but does not always maintain a high number of the variation which could reduce variant tendency of rumors. The more information diffuses in the social group, the more consistent the version and content of the information will be, which proves that the more adequate each individual information is, the slower and less likely rumors about COVID-19 spread. This consequence tells us that the government needs to guide the public to the truth. Announcing the true information publicly could instantly contain the COVID-19 rumor diffusion well rather than making them hidden or voiceless.
Highlights
Information diffusion is a typical model of dissemination in human society
With the rapid development of mobile networks and various social applications, the speed and breadth of information dissemination have changed qualitatively. This has demanded new requirements for relevant organizations to effectively guide the public opinion about COVID-19 and to reduce the harm of rumors about COVID-19
When the infected probability is higher, the density of the variation increases faster, and the peak value that is reached is larger. It can be concluded from the changing curve in the figure that the initial rumors about COVID-19, with great infectivity, can quickly affect the surrounding people when diffusing in the group, making more and more groups infected with rumors about
Summary
Information diffusion is a typical model of dissemination in human society. Whenever an emergency occurs, such as the occurrence of COVID-19, it is easy for rumors about COVID-19 to appear and to swirl due to asymmetric information, fuzzy facts, and subjective conjectures [1], which have numerous negative effects. Even μ2 is controlled, the threshold of their stability cannot be lowered, but the density of the recovery during the diffusion of rumors about COVID-19 can still be changed and the efficiency of disproving rumors can be improved through corresponding the measures When the infected probability is higher, the density of the variation increases faster, and the peak value that is reached is larger It can be concluded from the changing curve in the figure that the initial rumors about COVID-19, with great infectivity, can quickly affect the surrounding people when diffusing in the group, making more and more groups infected with rumors about. The more accurate the information everyone understands, the less likely it is to diffuse rumors about COVID-19
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