Online prediction of glucose concentration in type 1 diabetes using extreme learning machines.

Abstract

We propose an online machine-learning solution to the problem of nonlinear glucose time series prediction in type 1 diabetes. Recently, extreme learning machine (ELM) has been proposed for training single hidden layer feed-forward neural networks. The high accuracy and fast learning speed of ELM drive us to investigate its applicability to the glucose prediction problem. Given that diabetes self-monitoring data are received sequentially, we focus on online sequential ELM (OS-ELM) and online sequential ELM kernels (KOS-ELM). A multivariate feature set is utilized concerning subcutaneous glucose, insulin therapy, carbohydrates intake and physical activity. The dataset comes from the continuous multi-day recordings of 15 type 1 patients in free-living conditions. Assuming stationarity and evaluating the performance of the proposed method by 10-fold cross- validation, KOS-ELM were found to perform better than OS-ELM in terms of prediction error, temporal gain and regularity of predictions for a 30-min prediction horizon.