Abstract
Abstract. Multi-input single-output (MISO) nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) models have been derived to forecast the > 0.8 MeV and > 2 MeV electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit (GEO). The NARMAX algorithm is able to identify mathematical model for a wide class of nonlinear systems from input–output data. The models employ solar wind parameters as inputs to provide an estimate of the average electron flux for the following day, i.e. the 1-day forecast. The identified models are shown to provide a reliable forecast for both > 0.8 and > 2 MeV electron fluxes and are capable of providing real-time warnings of when the electron fluxes will be dangerously high for satellite systems. These models, named SNB3GEO > 0.8 and > 2 MeV electron flux models, have been implemented online at http://www.ssg.group.shef.ac.uk/USSW/UOSSW.html.
Highlights
The configuration of the magnetic field in the region of the terrestrial radiation belts allows for charged particles to be trapped
High fluxes of the energetic electrons can cause problems for modern technological systems and can be hazards for humans in space. Satellites in both low Earth orbit and geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) have an increased probability of suffering onboard satellite system malfunctioning, which can result in permanent hardware damage (Reagan et al, 1983; Baker et al, 1987)
A multi-input single-output (MISO) nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) model was used to represent the dynamics of the electron fluxes at GEO
Summary
The configuration of the magnetic field in the region of the terrestrial radiation belts allows for charged particles to be trapped. This study produced a new coupling function that was used as an input to model the Dst index in a following paper (Boynton et al, 2011a) This technique has recently been applied to various energies of the electron flux ranging from 24.1 keV to 3.5 MeV, obtaining some unexpected results (Boynton et al., 2013; Balikhin et al, 2011). The following study by Boynton et al (2013) reported an increasing influence in density from ∼ 1 until 1.8 MeV, above which it became the most important control parameter for the electron fluxes at GEO They identified a quantitative timescale of the electron flux enhancement as a function of energy that allowed Balikhin et al (2012) to argue that local diffusion is not dominant at GEO. This was achieved by validating the model on an interval of data, in other words, to see how the model forecasts would have performed during this interval
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