Abstract

This paper proposes a new online learning algorithm which is based on adaptive control (AC) theory, thus, we call this proposed algorithm as AC algorithm. Comparing to the gradient descent (GD) and exponential gradient (EG) algorithm which have been applied to online prediction problems, we find a new form of AC theory for online prediction problems and investigate two key questions: how to get a new update law which has a tighter upper bound on the error than the square loss? How to compare the upper bound for accumulated losses for the three algorithms? We obtain a new update law which fully utilizes model reference AC theory. Moreover, we present upper bound on the worst-case expected loss for AC algorithm and compare it with previously known bounds for the GD and EG algorithm. The loss bound we get in this paper is a time-varying function, which provides increasingly accurate estimates for upper bound. The AC algorithm has a much smaller loss only if the number of the samples meets certain conditions which can be seen in this paper. We also performed experiments which show that our update law is reasonably feasible and our upper bound is quite tight on both simple artificial and real data sets. The main contributions of this paper are twofold. First of all, we develop a new online algorithm called AC algorithm, and second, we obtain improved bounds, see Theorems 2-4 in this paper.

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