Abstract
BackgroundMalaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China.MethodsEcological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence.ResultsAt the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria.ConclusionFog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.
Highlights
Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics [1] with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change [2]
Seasonal variations are apparent in malaria incidence and the two weather variables: rainfall and fog day frequency
The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence is greater in the cool months than in the hot months
Summary
Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. These findings can be applied in a modeling exercise to estimate future patterns of malaria. The possible linkage between global warming and the increase in malaria incidence or its geographic spread has been extensively debated [5,6,7]. The current evidence is insufficient to clearly attribute the increase of malaria incidence or its geographic spread in the east African highlands to local warming [8]. Investigations that examine the consistency of climate and malaria relationships in different societal and regional contexts can improve our understanding of the linkages between climate and malaria transmission and provide a stronger scientific foundation for predicting future patterns of malaria [9]
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