One-class Classification-Based Machine Learning Model for Estimating the Probability of Wildfire Risk

Abstract

Wildfires have caused devastating consequences to property and human and animal lives, which has become a global problem. Consequently, advanced wildfire prediction models are required to treat complex features and climate conditions. As a result, Machine Learning and Deep Learning models are becoming popular. However, creating a balanced true and false labeled dataset in the wild-fire domain is often challenging. Hence, One-class classification models are a promising approach to overcome this concern. In this paper, several One-class classification models are investigated; linear models (Principal Component Analysis and One-Class Support Vector Machines), outlier ensemble models (Lightweight On-line Detector of Anomalies and Locally Selective Combination of Parallel Outlier Ensembles), proximity-based models (Histogram-based Outlier Score and Rotation-based Outlier Detection), probabilistic models (Unsupervised Outlier Detection Using Empirical Cumulative Distribution Functions and Copula-Based Outlier Detection), neural network-based models (Deep One-class Classification and Adversarially Learned Anomaly Detection) is used in two case studies for California and Western Australian states. In conclusion, it was found that Deep learning-based One-class classification models outperform other models in terms of performance and feature importance of showcasing the effectiveness of deep neural network models in the wildfire prediction domain.