One size does not fit all: Differential predation on livestock species by leopards (Panthera pardus) in a multiuse landscape in the gangetic plains, India

Abstract

There are underlying patterns involved in predation, particularly for an adaptable species like leopard. One of them is size of the prey. The selection of a prey by a carnivore is typically determined by the trade-off between energy spent and gained. Here size becomes even more consequential when conflict is involved, but most studies typically map all species as a single entity at a single spatial scale. This study aimed at understanding the multiscale nature of the conflict based on the size livestock attacked by leopards (large stock − cattle and small stock − goat and sheep). The methodology encompassed targeted sampling which included the collection of the GPS locations of the attack sites. Spatial layers of 14 environmental variables that represented three spatial scales i.e. proximate (cache-distance), local (daily-movement), and landscape (home-range) scale were then created through remotely sensed data. After that Generalized additive models were utilized for analysis, with ΔAIC used for model selection and evaluation was performed via AUC and TSS statistic. Our results indicate a spatial distinction in predation strategies. In the final model the statistically significant variables for large stock included a higher proportion of cover, and a lower proportion of settlements at the home-range scale, very low human population density at daily-movement scale, and NDVI representing moderately dense vegetation and terrain ruggedness index representing flat terrain at cache-distance scale. Similarly, for small stock the variables included a higher proportion of agricultural land and NDVI values representing open terrain. The effective degrees of freedom was higher than 2 for most of the variables, indicating non-linear relationships. We inferred that the leopards’ targeted large stock in more secluded dry deciduous forests farther from human settlements, where they may be found grazing alone. In contrast, smaller stock, being easier to catch, are killed more frequently in rugged terrain across a wider scrub landscape with scantier cover. Consequently, this selective selection based on size might have its basis in the perceived risk of being chased off by people and the reward in terms of the size of the acquired meal.