One Outcome, Many Trends: Understanding National Data Sources for Road Traffic Fatalities in China.

Abstract

To better understand national data sources and evaluate time trends in road traffic fatalities (RTF) in China. We reviewed national sources on RTF data. These included population-based report from the Ministry of Public Security (MPS), sample-based estimates from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and the Disease Surveillance Points System (DSP), as well as model-based estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO), and the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). All data sources have limitations in coverage, representativeness or overreliance on model specifications. Despite the discrepancies in methodologies and estimates, all sources indicated an increase in RTF before 2005. Since then, MPS and GBD indicated a decrease, DSP showed plateauing, and MOH and WHO suggested increasing fatalities. However, despite any recent decline, RTF remain high. The divergent trends in RTF across data sets in China implies a challenge to understanding China's experience with addressing RTF. China needs to reconcile data sources and further improve road safety.