One-Hit Wonders in Classical Music: Evidence and (Partial) Explanations for an Early Career Peak

Abstract

How can the creativity of “one-hit wonders” be explained? Anecdotes suggest one-hit wonders may peak early in their careers, but no quantitative investigation has specifically focused on this group. Here, objective recording count criteria were used to define samples of 89 one-hit and 89 “multi-hit” classical composers. One-hit composers peaked reliably earlier than their multi-hit counterparts, and this effect was greater between the most prototypical one-hit versus multi-hit composers. Lifespan, historical year, age at expertise acquisition onset, and overall hit popularity did not explain the effect. However, compared to multi-hit composers, one-hit composers’ hits tended to be easily elaborated, small-scale works like songs, which intrinsically peaked earlier than other genres. The pattern of career landmarks across five musical genres, using a sample of 394 composers, supported this interpretation. However, this is only a partial explanation, because one-hit composers began their musical careers significantly later than their multi-hit counterparts. Finally, one-hit composers’ operas were more highlight-dominated than those of multi-hit composers. Overall, the results suggest that chance factors play larger roles in the success of one-hit composers than multi-hit composers.