Abstract
Analyses of strategic agenda-setting in the European Union treat the European Commission as a unitary actor with perfect information. Yet, the constraints for correctly anticipating acceptable policies vary heavily across its individual Directorates-General. Do these internal rifts affect the Commission’s agenda-setting ability? This article tests corresponding expectations on the edit distances between 2237 Commission proposals and the adopted laws across 23 years. The quality of legislative anticipation indeed varies with the responsible Directorate-General. Legislative proposals are more likely to remain unchanged if they face less parliamentary involvement, are less complex, were drafted by an experienced Directorate-General, and were coordinated more seamlessly within the Commission. However, the uncovered variation also calls for more systematic research on the distribution of legislative capacities inside the Commission.
Highlights
The European Commission is considered a key actor fueling, fostering, and shaping the process of political integration in Europe
I start with a descriptive overview of the dependent variable: the probability that the text of a Commission proposal is turned into European law without significant change by the co-legislators
At the bottom end of the spectrum we find, for example, the DG for Justice Affairs (JUST), Climate Action (CLIMA), or Informatics (DIGIT) which only have a below 45% chance that the adopted law reflects the original text they have proposed
Summary
The European Commission is considered a key actor fueling, fostering, and shaping the process of political integration in Europe. Quality of anticipation refers to the degree to which the Commission can correctly identify the set of politically feasible policy choices before it tables its formal proposal.
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