Once again to the problem of estimating the number of Genoese merchants in Byzantium at the end of the 13th century using the methods of mathematical statistics

Abstract

One of the actual problems of Byzantine studies is the estimation of the size of the Genoese trading community of Constantinople, which played a critical role in the fate of late Byzantium. To solve this problem the historian A.L. Ponomarev proposed to use mathematical methods based on data from indirect sources - notarial deeds preserved in the State Archives of Genoa. These deeds were drawn up to fix commercial transactions, agreements on the creation of commercial partnerships, the hiring of ships, wills, the purchase and sale of houses, goods and people. In addition to the obligatory mention in the deed form of the names of the contracting parties and witnesses to the transaction, it may also, depending on its type, contain the names of guardians, recipients of the will and other third parties. Thus, these data on the clientele of Genoese notaries represent a rather impressive and valuable array of information, which may indirectly indicate the size of the entire trading Genoese community of Byzantium. To solve this problem, the author of this paper draws on the ideas and methods of the theory of random placements, which is an intensively developing area of mathematical statistics. It is based on constructing a linear estimate of the value and assumes a random sample. The result obtained is compared with the estimate from the previous paper by the author, which is based on another method of mathematical statistics and is quite close to the value of A.L. Ponomarev - 688 people.