Abstract
A new approach to upper bounding the decoding error probability of convolutional codes is proposed. Its idea is, instead of evaluating the individual contribution of each fundamental path, to compare it with contribution of another (lighter) fundamental path. This allows us to (1) take into account the dependence between different fundamental paths based on the code tree structure; (2) represent the decoding error probability through the contribution of the first fundamental paths and a correction factor; (3) get much more accurate estimates.
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