Abstract
Models and observations relative to the CO 2-climate controversy are analyzed in a manner similar to Ellsaesser's recent analysis of models and observations relative to the supersonic transport threat to the ozone layer. As in that earlier analysis, and as is explicit in all formulations of the scientific method, observations of surface air temperature prove to be much more reliable than atmospheric general circulation models in reconstructing recent climatic history. This finding leaves grave doubts about the ability of the models to predict our climatic future, specifically with respect to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations.
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