On thin ice: The Arctic Council’s uncertain future

Abstract

Since 1996, the Arctic Council has served as a critical forum through which Arctic States have collaborated on common concerns affecting the North. The consensus-based structure of the Council, set apart from high politics, created the conditions for continued peaceful relations even as tensions flared far from the Arctic Circle. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent pause in Arctic Council activities, the future of this “high level forum” came into question. The ongoing Ukraine War threatens to unravel the goodwill of the past quarter century, potentially undercutting the Arctic Council as the preeminent channel for Arctic governance at a time when environmental and geopolitical stressors necessitate greater cooperation, not less. As a now isolated Russia seeks new partnerships with “friendly” States for Arctic missions, the threat of an Arctic divided between East and West grows. With accelerating loss of sea-ice due to climate change, opening up the Arctic to greater resource exploitation and shipping, animosity in the North will further threaten this fragile ecosystem. This paper proposes a return to the founding ethos of cooperation through science diplomacy to rebuild strained relationships and prevent further fracturing of the Arctic Council.