On the way to becoming a society of downward mobility? Intergenerational occupational mobility in seven West German birth cohorts (1944–1978)

Richard Nennstiel

doi:10.1016/j.rssm.2021.100609

Abstract

Many studies on social mobility use operationalizations of social positions that do not take occupational upgrading into account. In order to estimate social mobility patterns net of occupational upgrading, I propose an operationalization involving administrative data to measure social positions by applying a percentile approach. Based on this measurement I calculate absolute and relative intergenerational mobility patterns.Using this operationalization, I aim to answer the question of how far intergenerational mobility patterns have changed over time in West Germany. Therefore, I analyze the occupational data of 7,416 38- to 42-year-olds born between 1944 and 1978 belonging to the sixth starting cohort of the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS). Compared to previous studies, I observe significantly higher rates of downward mobility. However, I do not find any cohort trends in absolute mobility rates and do not detect any changes in social fluidity patterns. I therefore conclude that there are no cohort trends in absolute or relative intergenerational mobility in West Germany, implying that it is not on its way to becoming a society of downward mobility. In contrast to previous studies, my results indicate high social fluidity and no changes in relative mobility over time. Hence, the picture of a rigid German social structure should be reconsidered.

Highlights

The downward mobility rate increased from 30 percent to 38 percent over the cohorts
We see that upward mobility across the cohorts declined from 59 percent to 52 percent, while downward mobility increased from 37 percent to 41 percent
I answer the question of whether there have been changes in mobility patterns indicating that Germany is on the way to becoming a society of downward mobility

Summary

Introduction

Intergenerational mobility has been a central area for sociological research (Blau & Duncan, 1967; Breen & Jonsson, 2005; Breen, 2019; Erikson & Goldthorpe, 1992; Erikson, Goldthorpe, & Portocarero, 1979; Gugushvili, Bukodi, & Goldthorpe, 2017; Hillmert, 2015; Hout & DiPrete, 2006; Kurz & Müller, 1987; Sorokin, 1959 [1927; Sorokin, 1959 [1927]; Torche, 2015). As social mobility is considered an indicator of the openness and equality of opportunity in a society (Blossfeld & Shavit, 1992), the legitimacy of societies is strongly associated with the mobility patterns they offer to their members (Betthauser, 2019; Mayer & Solga, 1994). The concept of absolute mobility refers to mobility in society as a whole. It helps us answer questions such as how many people are in the same (or different) social class as their parents. Relative mobility examines to what extent a person’s origin influences the attainment of certain social positions

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