On the variability of simulated source-receptor relationships for sulfur deposition

Abstract

The use of Lagrangian models to estimate source-receptor relationships for ambient SO 4 = concentrations and S deposition has become fairly widespread over the past several years. This paper addresses the sensitivity of long-term simulations of a Lagrangian S transport and deposition model to actual variations in SO2 emissions and meteorological conditions. The variations of predicted source-receptor relationships due to (1) the inclusion of day to day variations in emissions strength as opposed to the use of the annual average daily emission rate and (2) year-to-year variations in meteorological conditions were studied to identify causes of uncertainty in a Lagrangian model. The results suggested that adding information on day to day emission variations for a specific point source resulted in variations in estimated S wet deposition of the order of only 20% within 500 km of the source. Year-to-year variations in meteorological conditions, on the other hand, resulted in variations in predicted S wet deposition of the order of 50% for some receptors. The variation in estimated source-receptor relationships for a given source/receptor combination was found to range as high as 70% over a 5-yr modeling period.