On the Value of Options for High School Students: Some Findings and an Analysis of Policy

Abstract

The idea that everyone should finish high school is relatively new. As recently as 1959, high school graduates were a minority of the total civilian labor force. But during the 1950s and 1960s, children born in the 1945-1960 baby boom entered high school in great numbers. In addition, a large proportion made it all the way through high school and received diplomas. The proportion of 18-year-olds who had high school diplomas grew from 61 percent in 1954-55 to more than 75 percent by 1970. As a result, by 1970 almost twothirds of the labor force had at least finished high school, and by 1979 more than three out of four members of the labor force had high school diplomas or more. For those who want jobs, especially young people who lack previous work experience, finishing high school has now become the norm (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1975, 1980; National Center for Educational Statistics, 1979a). Paradoxically, however, the same trends that have made a high school diploma more important as a prerequisite for employment have also made it less effective as a guarantee. Even though members of the baby-boom group were finishing high school (and college) at higher rates than previous generations, the sheer size of the baby-boom generation was making it more difficult for them all to find jobs. This can be seen by comparing the years 1956, 1965, and 1974, because in these years the overall availability of jobs in the economy happened to be the same, as indicated by the same (2.6 percent) level of unemployment among males aged 35 to 44. In 1956, no boom babies were yet seeking regular jobs, and the unemployment rate among 16to 19-year-old males was 11.1 percent. In 1965, the 16to 19-year-old group consisted of people born at the beginning of the baby boom (1946 to 1949), and the unemployment rate for males in this group was 14.1 percent. In 1974, the 16to 19-year-olds were from the peak years of the baby boom (1955 to 1958), and the unemployment rate for males in that group was up to 15.5 percent. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1975). This rise in relative unemployment rates for teenage males occurred in spite of the fact that those who did find full-time jobs were earning less and less compared to prime-age males (Wachter, 1977). As teenagers in the 1960s and early 1970s, males born in the baby boom were reporting relatively less success in finding jobs, even at lower relative wages, in spite of their higher educational attainments.