On the use of the Price equation

Abstract

This paper distinguishes two categories of questions that the Price equation can help us answer. The two different types of questions require two different disciplines that are related, but nonetheless move in opposite directions. These disciplines are probability theory on the one hand and statistical inference on the other. In the literature on the Price equation this distinction is not made. As a result of this, questions that require a probability model are regularly approached with statistical tools. In this paper, we examine the possibilities of the Price equation for answering questions of either type. By spending extra attention on mathematical formalities, we avoid the two disciplines to get mixed up. After that, we look at some examples, both from kin selection and from group selection, that show how the inappropriate use of statistical terminology can put us on the wrong track. Statements that are ‘derived’ with the help of the Price equation are, therefore, in many cases not the answers they seem to be. Going through the derivations in reverse can, however, be helpful as a guide how to build proper (probabilistic) models that do give answers.