Abstract
At operational hydrological forecasting system for the River Danube is discussed. Two recursive algorithms are run in parallel as decision aids for the forecaster. The first one is a discrete linear cascade model that is based upon the linearized unsteady flow equations and is supplemented by an ARMAX residual model. Parameters are estimated off-line. Forecasts are updated by a linear Kalman filter. The second model acts as an operational back-up and is an entirely stochastic model that uses the self-tuning principle. Numerical results are presented for the whole Hungarian Danube reach.
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