Abstract
New tests for trend in proportions, in the presence of historical control data, are proposed. One such test is a simple score statistic based on a binomial likelihood for the "current" study and beta-binomial likelihoods for each historical control series. A closely related trend statistic based on estimating equations is also proposed. Trend statistics that allow overdispersed proportions in the current study are also developed, including a version of Tarone's (1982, Biometrics 38, 215-220) test that acknowledges sampling variation in the beta distribution parameters, and a trend statistic based on estimating equations. Each such trend test is evaluated with respect to size and power under both binomial and beta-binomial sampling conditions for the current study, and illustrations are provided.
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