Abstract
Very short-term forecasts of wind power provide electricity market participants with extremely valuable information, especially in power systems with high penetration of wind energy. In very short-term horizons, statistical methods based on historical data are frequently used. This paper explores the use of dual-Doppler radar observations of wind speed and direction to derive five-minute ahead deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of wind power. An advection-based technique is introduced, which estimates the predictive densities of wind speed at the target wind turbine. In a case study, the proposed methodology is used to forecast the power generated by seven turbines in the North Sea with a temporal resolution of one minute. The radar-based forecast outperforms the persistence and climatology benchmarks in terms of overall forecasting skill. Results indicate that when a large spatial coverage of the inflow of the wind turbine is available, the proposed methodology is also able to generate reliable density forecasts. Future perspectives on the application of Doppler radar observations for very short-term wind power forecasting are discussed in this paper.
Highlights
The increasing participation of offshore wind power in electricity markets continuously poses challenges for ensuring grid stability and power quality, especially due to the enhanced variability of offshore wind power in short scales [1]
This paper explores the use of dual-Doppler radar observations of wind speed and direction to derive five-minute ahead deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of wind power
This paper investigated the use of DD radar observations to derive deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of wind power in a very short-term horizon of five minutes
Summary
The increasing participation of offshore wind power in electricity markets continuously poses challenges for ensuring grid stability and power quality, especially due to the enhanced variability of offshore wind power in short scales [1]. During the pilot phase of the project, the standard deviation of the prediction error of the possible power is required to be less than ± 5%. These changes in grid regulations, driven by faster temporal responses of the grid, show the importance of improving wind power forecasts with shorter horizons and higher temporal resolutions in order to reduce the costs associated with operating the grid and minimize balancing reserves. Reliable very short-term forecasts of wind power benefit electricity market participants since they allow them to be more competitive in intraday markets [3]. As electricity markets are becoming more flexible with the use of intraday gate closure times as short as five minutes [4], the technical challenge arises on how to generate accurate very short-term wind power forecasts
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