Abstract
A recursive ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used as the data assimilation scheme to estimate strength and stiffness parameters simultaneously for a fully coupled hydro-mechanical slope stability analysis. Two different constitutive models are used in the hydro-mechanical model: the Mohr-Coulomb (MC) model and the Hardening Soil (HS) model. The data assimilation framework allows the investigation of the effect of constitutive behaviour on its ability to estimate the factor of safety using measurements of horizontal nodal displacement at the sloping face. In a synthetic study, close-to-failure and far-from-failure cases of prior property estimations illustrate the effect of initial material property distribution with different material models. The results show that both models provide a reliable factor of safety when the distribution of prior parameters is selected close-to-failure. However, the HS model results in the improved estimation of factor of safety for the far-from-failure case while this is not the case for the MC model. In addition, for the same level of accuracy the computational effort required for the HS model is comparatively less than for the MC model.
Highlights
The stability of slopes is important for the construction and risk assessment of infrastructure
The blue lines represent the ensemble prediction of horizontal nodal displacement at point A based on the prior ensemble of parameters, with the heavy blue line representing the mean
The influence of two different constitutive models on factor of safety is studied by using data assimilation with the recursive ensemble Kal man filter in a slope stability model
Summary
The stability of slopes is important for the construction and risk assessment of infrastructure. With the development of numerical methods, such as the finite element method (FEM), it has become possible to analyse and predict the behaviour of geometrically complex slopes under hydro-mechanical non-steady-state conditions. The applicability of this type of analysis significantly depends upon the constitutive (stress-strain) behaviour of the material and the mathematical repre sentation of the behaviour used in FEM. The evaluation of non-linearity in elasticity, elasto-plasticity and hardening/softening are regularly seen in more advanced constitutive models. Commercial software packages (e.g. PLAXIS) offer the possibility to include different consti tutive models, for example, a formulation representing linear-elastic perfectly plastic behaviour based on Mohr-Coulomb assumptions, or a hardening soil model, which is a more advanced non-linear elastoplastic soil model that includes hardening (Plaxis, 2015)
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