Abstract
Abstract. Mining induced subsidence in the Netherlands is often associated with small gas fields (less than 5 km diameter), or discrete sources (converging salt caverns). As most of the areas experiencing this subsidence are close to sea level, and the effects of gas exploitation in Groningen may be considered a national trauma, there is strong emphasis on control and regulation of the related mining activities and their effects at the surface. The relatively small subsidence (often less than 10 cm), combined with inherent prediction uncertainty involving geological parameters, introduces a monitoring challenge to both mining companies and the regulator. A large initial uncertainty can be reduced during production by a carefully designed monitoring strategy, including evaluation of the results and clear communication on the effects on the uncertainty of the prognosis. In the same process, one may quantify remaining uncertainties and the limitations on predictability. In this contribution, we discuss the nature of some specific uncertainties associated with small source subsidence, and the effects on the regulatory process. The description is based on a realistic assessment of the expected accuracy of subsidence predictions. This allows for a clean comparison between different measurement techniques, and may help prevent overly optimistic claims on predictability. A description of uncertainty in terms of scenarios and parameter sensitivity studies should be used in communicating the expected level of subsidence control to water management boards and the general public.
Highlights
Mining and mining induced subsidence in the Netherlands is often first associated with the Groningen gas field, a large area where as much as 50 cm total subsidence is expected
At the State Supervision of Mining (SSM) in the Netherlands, we exercise the Dutch mining laws and regulations, which state that a prognosis of effects at the surface must be determined before operations can be allowed
Given the large uncertainties of subsidence predictions due to production from small fields or discrete sources, we propose to stimulate an open discussion of these uncertainties at the start of production
Summary
Mining and mining induced subsidence in the Netherlands is often first associated with the Groningen gas field, a large area where as much as 50 cm total subsidence is expected. In addition to the primary effects of subsidence in the gas field there are secondary effects that are important. These secondary effects include the effects on water management, agricultural qualities of the land, and the way people perceive mining as an activity that acts to deteriorate their living environment. We keep in mind the purpose of regulation, which is to assure a balance of technical control, and establishing reliability and perception of control on the effects of mining activities. The latter are expressed by realistic uncertainties on any prediction given. Uations and measurements are used to update the assessment and constrain the uncertainty of the effects for the near future within smaller bandwidths
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