On the trade-off between the leverage effect and real options thinking: A simulation-based model on metal mining investment

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of financing conditions to managerial flexibility and project value and focuses on the point of view of the equity holder of a mining company. Simulation based analysis is performed with a dynamic system model of a metal mine investment. The leverage effect of the equity holder's discount rate change as a function of the debt/equity ratio is separately modelled. Our empirical results show that the choice of a financing structure is important for the value maximization for the equity holder, since different debt/equity ratios differently condition the management's ability to make operational decisions, such as temporary shut downs, which could raise the value of the mining project. The trade-off between the leverage effect (decreasing need for equity) and real option flexibility (increasing need for working capital) will be scrutinized both theoretically and by using simulation-based analysis for numerical results.