On the study of disarmament and escalation

Abstract

a national defense policy, and in particular in their relation to deterrence. In the course of the last twenty years there has been a considerable growth in methods and theories concerning different aspects of human behavior. In particular, in situations involving conscious choice under conditions of possible conflict or cooperation there has been a development in political science, mathematical economics, programming, psychology, simulation, gaming, and game theory. For several years an expectation was built up that game-theoretical models would make an immediate operational contribution to the applied art and hoped-for science of weapons control. The diplomat, the general, and the social scientist, when confronted with the ill-defined and the uncontrollable, have often hoped for a witchmedicine to solve their problems. A common modern formula for the powerful witch medicine contains a game-theoretic model and a large digital computer. Unfortunately, neither the growth of methodology nor technology by itself can solve problems which require a deep substantive knowledge. This does not mean that the new