On the role of solar and geomagnetic activity in long-term trends in the atmosphere–ionosphere system

Abstract

The long-term continuous increase of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere and other anthropogenic influences represent serious threat for human civilization. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the long-term trends and changes in the atmosphere–ionosphere system. The observed long-term trends in the 20th century might be, however, influenced by contribution of Sun's origin, and the process of determination of anthropogenic trends from observational data may be “spoilt” by the 11-year solar cycle. The role of solar/geomagnetic activity in long-term trends in various regions of the atmosphere/ionosphere system is briefly reviewed for the first time. The ways of avoiding or at least diminishing the effect of solar cycle on trend determination are mentioned. As for the possible solar and geomagnetic activity responsibility for part of the observed long-term trends, the two main conclusions are as follows: (i) The role of solar and geomagnetic activity in the observed long-term trends decreases with decreasing altitude from the F-region ionosphere down to the troposphere. (ii) In the 20th century the role of solar and geomagnetic activity in the observed long-term trends/changes was decreasing from its beginning towards its end.