Abstract

The paper presents a model of development of rabies in the human organism. The growth of the population of viruses is represented as a stochastic process, whose sample functions increase in jumps, and decrease exponentially in between, with the decay rate changing at the moment of vaccination. The disease is assumed to occur at the moment of the first passage of the process through a critical level. The theoretical results, in form of some inequalities for the risk of rabies, account to some extent for the observed fact of dependence of the probability of occurrence of rabies on the seriousness of bite.

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