Abstract
We examine the relation between price returns and volatility changes in the Bitcoin market using a daily database denominated in various currencies. The results for the entire period provide no evidence of an asymmetric return-volatility relation in the Bitcoin market. We test if there is a difference in the return-volatility relation before and after the price crash of 2013 and show a significant inverse relation between past shocks and volatility before the crash and no significant relation after. This finding shows that, prior to the price crash of December 2013, positive shocks increased the conditional volatility more than negative shocks. This inverted asymmetric reaction of Bitcoin to positive and negative shocks is contrary to what we observe in equities. As leverage effect and volatility feedback don’t adequately explain this reaction, we propose the safe-haven effect (Baur, 2012). We highlight the benefits of adding Bitcoin to a US equity portfolio, especially in the pre-crash period. Robustness analyses show, among others, a negative relation between the US implied volatility index (VIX) and Bitcoin volatility. Those additional analyses further support our findings and provide useful information for economic actors who are interested in adding Bitcoin to their equity portfolios or are curious about the capabilities of Bitcoin as a financial asset.
Highlights
Since its controversial inception in 2009, Bitcoin has attracted the attention of the media and economic actors
The stationarity and positivity conditions are respected for all cases and there is no evidence of conditional heteroscedasticity in the squared residuals6
We focus on the USD-denominated Bitcoin returns and estimate in Eq (2) an extension version of the asymmetric-GARCH model presented earlier in Eq (1) by adding the return series on the US implied volatility index (VIX)
Summary
Since its controversial inception in 2009, Bitcoin has attracted the attention of the media and economic actors. The safe-haven property of Bitcoin remains unexplored, especially the effect of the Bitcoin price crash of December 2013 on such a property. We address this literature gap by examining whether Bitcoin, like gold, can be considered as a valuable asset in downturn periods. Such an examination is important for economic actors who are searching for an ultimate asset that provides insurance against downward market movements
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