Abstract
Examining the conceptual relationship between personal experience, affect, and risk perception is crucial in improving our understanding of how emotional and cognitive process mechanisms shape public perceptions of climate change. This study is the first to investigate the interrelated nature of these variables by contrasting three prominent social-psychological theories. In the first model, affect is viewed as a fast and associative information processing heuristic that guides perceptions of risk. In the second model, affect is seen as flowing from cognitive appraisals (i.e., affect is thought of as a post-cognitive process). Lastly, a third, dual-process model is advanced that integrates aspects from both theoretical perspectives. Four structural equation models were tested on a national sample (N = 808) of British respondents. Results initially provide support for the “cognitive” model, where personal experience with extreme weather is best conceptualized as a predictor of climate change risk perception and, in turn, risk perception a predictor of affect. Yet, closer examination strongly indicates that at the same time, risk perception and affect reciprocally influence each other in a stable feedback system. It is therefore concluded that both theoretical claims are valid and that a dual-process perspective provides a superior fit to the data. Implications for theory and risk communication are discussed. © 2014 The Authors. European Journal of Social Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Highlights
An increasing amount of research has shown that people can accurately detect changes in their local climate and relate this perceptual experience to climate change (e.g., Akerlof, Maibach, Fitzgerald, Cedeno, & Neuman, 2013; Howe et al, 2013; Joireman, Truelove, & Duell, 2010)
A number of studies have indicated that personal experience with extreme weather events is a significant predictor of climate change risk perceptions
Personal experience plays a key role in affective processing, as affective responses are essentially formed through learning and experience (Damasio, 1994)
Summary
An increasing amount of research has shown that people can (to some extent) accurately detect changes in their local climate and relate this perceptual experience to climate change (e.g., Akerlof, Maibach, Fitzgerald, Cedeno, & Neuman, 2013; Howe et al, 2013; Joireman, Truelove, & Duell, 2010). Risk perception often concerns future events (Sjöberg, 2000) and because affective evaluations of future risks largely depend on the vividness with which negative consequences can be represented mentally (Damasio, 1994; Weber, 2006), it logically follows that personal experience with the impacts of climate change and affective processing are closely interrelated (Marx et al, 2007). It is direct personal experience and affective processing that go hand in hand. As I will illustrate the conceptual relationship between personal experience, affect, and risk perceptions of climate change can be represented within the frame of three competing socialpsychological theories
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