On the Relationship between Marital Opportunity and Teen Pregnancy

Abstract

Since Guttentag and Secord proposed that low sex ratios (i.e., scarcity of men) produce marital instability and high rates of nonmarital pregnancy, empirical investigations of this issue have produced weak and conflicting results. This study sought to clarify the issue using cross-national data compiled by the United Nations. Geographical region, per capita gross national product (GNP), the marriage rate, and whether the sample was urban or rural were used as control variables in regression analyses which used sex ratios to predict teen births. The model explained 67% of the variance in teen birth rates. Teen births were significantly higher in rural samples and in the Americas and were inversely correlated with the sex ratio for 15- to 19-year-olds and with GNP. The data suggest that early childbearing is partly a response to poor marital opportunity, as Guttentag and Secord hypothesized.