On the probability of collision for crossing aircraft

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to calculate the probability of collision of flying aircraft crossing on straight paths in any direction.Design/methodology/approachThe probability of deviations from the intended flight paths is used to calculate the probability of collision that is integrated over time to cover whole events.FindingsThe probabilities of collision are calculated in terms of the r.m.s. position errors and encounter geometry, that is aircraft velocities and flight path angles and crossing angles.Research limitations/implicationsThe method does not apply to aircraft flying in parallel tracks at the same velocity in air corridors: that case has been covered elsewhere, as well as the case of climbing or descending aircraft.Practical implicationsInternational Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) specifies as target level of safety (TLS) a probability of collision not exceeding 5×10−9 per hour. To meet the ICAO TLS standard, it is necessary to calculate collision probabilities for all stages of flight.Social implicationsA low collision probability is a safety metric; the value does depend on a realist choice of probability distribution.Originality/valueCalculates the probability of collision for crossing flights, corresponding to a common scenario on air traffic management.