Abstract
AbstractMany parts of East Africa experienced extremely dry conditions during the short rains season of October–December 2021. It was predicted a few months before by the ensemble seasonal prediction system based on the SINTEX‐F climate model. The analysis of co‐variability of inter‐member anomalies has revealed that the 2021 negative Indian Ocean Dipole was responsible for these unusually dry conditions over East Africa. We also show that a hybrid statistical‐dynamical framework is more skillful than the SINTEX‐F model at predicting drought in East Africa on longer lead time, which may help people to take necessary mitigation measures to reduce the devastating impact of the drought.
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