Abstract
Asteroid (3200) Phaethon is the supposed parent body for the Geminid meteoroid stream and previously it has never shown any trace of activity. However, it doubled its brightness unexpectedly and sharply in 2009 June. This short outburst could imply that an ejection of dust particles had taken place. We have modelled this dust ejection and the subsequent evolution of the meteoroid swarm, with the aim of determining whether the dust could be observed as meteors on Earth in the near future. We also wish to determine whether the outburst activity can be distinguished from the activity of the main shower. We have found that the model dust swarm is slowly approaching Earth and that it will enter the Earth’s influence sphere (<0.03 au) in 2014. The minimum distance between particles and the Earth will be at least 0.015 au until 2050. Therefore, it will be possible to observe the resulting meteors, but the probability of the event is small. The outburst in the Geminid’s activity as a result of this swarm might take place at λ ⊙ = 262°.5 (i.e. after the main Geminid’s maximum). To exceed the usual level of activity, the mass of the 2009 swarm should exceed ∼10 8 kg. The radiation area of the model outburst meteors is a small spot: α≈ 114°.65 ± 2°.5, δ≈ 32°.7 ± 0°.1.
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