ON THE POSSIBILITY OF USING MAPS OF METEOROLOGICAL EVENTS FROM RESEARCH CENTRE «PLANET» FOR STUDYING AND PREDICTING THUNDERSTORMS ON THE URAL TERRITORY

Abstract

The diagnosis and prediction of convective events are a difficult and challenging process. One of the most promising methods used for such tasks are hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing. The aim of this research is to make a comparative analysis of meteorological events maps and data from observational network to find the possibility of using the maps from research center «Planet» for studying and predicting thunderstorms on the territory of the Ural. The spatiotemporal features of thunderstorms were identified. The repeatability and success of detection of this event were also determined, depending on the barium field, synoptic situation and specific characteristics of thunderstorms. During the study it was found that about 20 % of thunderstorms observed by weather stations were not predicted on weather maps; the high probability prediction was better than the medium and low probability forecasts of thunderstorms; spatial and temporal shifts were common in the prediction of thunderstorms. For a more detailed and objective analysis, it is recommended to work with a larger sample and use data from other sources like meteorological radiolocators, stormscopes, and others.