On the Poisson distribution applicability to the Japanese seismic activity

Abstract

The Japanese isles are located on the Pacific ring of fire, thus facing intense seismic activity. Earthquakes are recorded on a daily basis, and it is easy to understand that (strong) earthquake forecasting is critical and an actively researched topic. In this study, we are investigating the applicability of the Poisson distribution for earthquake forecasting specifically on the Japanese territory. We shall thus analyse recent seismic data aiming at identifying parameters for the Poisson distribution that induce best forecasting, and also at deducing patterns and relations between, for instance, seismic intensities and geographical locations. We shall conduct several experiments on the data gathered to eventually discuss the most promising conditions for the Poisson distribution in this forecasting context.