On the path to sustainable energy landscapes? The social shaping of energy landscapes in the face of climate protection measures

Stephan Bosch,Dominik Kienmoser,Matthias Schmidt

doi:10.3112/erdkunde.2020.04.03

Abstract

Potential spatio-temporal patterns of renewable energies that take into account international climate protection strategies have been neither analysed nor visualised exactly in terms of their landscape complexity. Furthermore, it is unclear what land uses would be prevalent in new energy landscapes, due to a lack of restrictions, and which social conflicts would be associated with these land use changes. There is no knowledge at all about the extent to which existing land use, which has emerged from a capitalistic order, affects the achievement of a carbon-neutral and socially just society. It is also not clear how far it is possible to identify alternative spatial patterns of sustainable energy transition by altering spatial restrictions concerning renewable energies. For this reason, we want to model and visualise a regional energy landscape that corresponds to the objectives of the UN Climate Conference in terms of its regional greenhouse gas balance in the electricity sector. In this regard, the study provides a detailed analysis of the landscape transformations that would occur in rural spaces if those values which attempt to link energy transition to the Paris Agreement were to prevail. The analyses reveal that a strict orientation of the expansion of renewable energies towards climate protection goals would strongly mechanise rural areas, thus significantly transforming their social patterns.

Highlights

At the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, the parties agreed to keep global warming below 2°C, compared to pre-industrial levels, and to limit it to 1.5°C, if possible (UN 2015)
The modelling of energy landscapes is based on a Geographic Information System (GIS), which helps identify the spatial patterns of renewable energies that would most likely make it possible to limit global warming to below 2°C
In view of the currently existing global carbon dioxide budget (2° target), a regional carbon dioxide budget is derived that will allow for the gradual development of climate-neutral energy landscapes

Summary

Introduction

At the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, the parties agreed to keep global warming below 2°C, compared to pre-industrial levels, and to limit it to 1.5°C, if possible (UN 2015). According to the Paris Agreement, Germany had a population-related carbon dioxide budget of 7.3 gigatons (at 1.75°C global warming) available at the beginning of 2019, and so assuming a linear emission reduction of 6% annually, this budget should be used up by 2035 (Rahmstorf 2019). The country is not moving along this path: in recent years, the annual carbon dioxide budget has always been used up by the end of March, even though renewable energies already account for 46.1% of net electricity generation (ISE 2020). In order to comply with the Paris Agreement, this share still needs to be significantly increased over the few years.

Objectives

Results

Discussion

Conclusion