On the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Simulations in CMIP6 Models: A New Test-Bed from Climate Network Analysis

Abstract

As a dominant pattern of the North Pacific sea surface temperature decadal variability, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has remarkable influences on the marine and terrestrial ecosystems. However, the PDO is highly unpredictable. Here, we assess the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the PDO, with an emphasis on the evaluation of CMIP6 models in reproducing a recently detected early warning signal based on climate network analysis for the PDO regime shift. Results show that the skill of CMIP6 historical simulations remains at a low level, with a skill limited in reproducing PDO’s spatial pattern and nearly no skill in reproducing the PDO index. However, if the warning signal for the PDO regime shift by climate network analysis is considered as a test-bed, we find that even in historical simulations, a few models can represent the corresponding relationship between the warning signal and the PDO regime shift, regardless of the chronological accuracy. By further conducting initialization, the performance of the model simulations is improved according to the evaluation of the hindcasts from two ensemble members of the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (NorCPM1 and BCC-CSM2-MR). Particularly, we find that the NorCPM1 model can capture the early warning signals for the late-1970s and late-1990s regime shifts 5–7 years in advance, indicating that the early warning signal somewhat can be captured by some CMIP6 models. A further investigation on the underlying mechanisms of the early warning signal would be crucial for the improvement of model simulations in the North Pacific.