On the NASA GEDI and ESA CCI biomass maps: aligning for uptake in the UNFCCC global stocktake

Abstract

Earth Observation data are uniquely positioned to estimate forest aboveground biomass density (AGBD) in accordance with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) principles of ‘transparency, accuracy, completeness, consistency and comparability’. However, the use of space-based AGBD maps for national-level reporting to the UNFCCC is nearly non-existent as of 2023, the end of the first global stocktake (GST). We conduct an evidence-based comparison of AGBD estimates from the NASA Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation and ESA Climate Change Initiative, describing differences between the products and National Forest Inventories (NFIs), and suggesting how science teams must align efforts to inform the next GST. Between the products, in the tropics, the largest differences in estimated AGBD are primarily in the Congolese lowlands and east/southeast Asia. Where NFI data were acquired (Peru, Mexico, Lao PDR and 30 regions of Spain), both products show strong correlation to NFI-estimated AGBD, with no systematic deviations. The AGBD-richest stratum of these, the Peruvian Amazon, is accurately estimated in both. These results are remarkably promising, and to support the operational use of AGB map products for policy reporting, we describe targeted ways to align products with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. We recommend moving towards consistent statistical terminology, and aligning on a rigorous framework for uncertainty estimation, supported by the provision of open-science codes for large-area assessments that comprehensively report uncertainty. Further, we suggest the provision of objective and open-source guidance to integrate NFIs with multiple AGBD products, aiming to enhance the precision of national estimates. Finally, we describe and encourage the release of user-friendly product documentation, with tools that produce AGBD estimates directly applicable to the IPCC guideline methodologies. With these steps, space agencies can convey a comparable, reliable and consistent message on global biomass estimates to have actionable policy impact.