On the joint distribution of tree height and tree length under the coalescent

Abstract

Many statistics that examine genetic variation depend on the underlying shapes of genealogical trees. Under the coalescent model, we investigate the joint distribution of two quantities that describe genealogical tree shape: tree height and tree length. We derive a recursive formula for their exact joint distribution under a demographic model of a constant-sized population. We obtain approximations for the mean and variance of the ratio of tree height to tree length, using them to show that this ratio converges in probability to 0 as the sample size increases. We find that as the sample size increases, the correlation coefficient for tree height and length approaches (π2−6)∕[π2π2−18]≈0.9340. Using simulations, we examine the joint distribution of height and length under demographic models with population growth and population subdivision. We interpret the joint distribution in relation to problems of interest in data analysis, including inference of the time to the most recent common ancestor. The results assist in understanding the influences of demographic histories on two fundamental features of tree shape.