On the intersection between prospective LCA and patent analysis. A theoretical discussion

Abstract

The prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA) methodology allows to estimate the future environmental impacts of emerging technologies and immature products not yet on the market. To make up for the lack of information on the product, the pLCA makes extensive use of secondary data, taken from various sources including patents which contain prospective information of industrial interest. To date, there have been attempts to show the potential of patent analysis in supporting pLCA, but never extensively and as proposed in this work with a truly systematic approach. In fact, this study aims to demonstrate how an accurate analysis of the information contained within patents can provide solutions to a number of open problems underlying the pLCA. More specifically, it was shown how patents can serve for: the support to experts in technological forecasting, the definition of scenario ranges, the support to the background and foreground systems modelling, the comparison of the future diffusion of a mature and an emerging technology, the support to the projections based on pathways to reach policy reductions to ensure time consistency. For each question, it was explained how to decline the patent analysis, i.e. which parts of the patents to analyse and how.