On the importance of Major Baltic Inflows for oxygenation of the central Baltic Sea

Abstract

In December 2014, the third strongest salt water inflow into the Baltic Sea occurred since 1880. It was assumed that the inflow would turn the entire bottom water of the Baltic Sea from anoxic into oxic conditions for an extended period. However, already in late 2015, the central Eastern Baltic Sea had turned back into anoxic conditions. This rapid oxygen decline was in fact surprising since a weaker inflow in 2003 ventilated the Baltic Sea for a longer period of time. With the aid of an ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea, the two inflows in 2003 and 2014 were analyzed in detail. Although the 2014 inflow event was twice as strong as the 2003 inflow event, oxygen transport continued after the latter one, supplying about the same amount of oxygen again. In addition to the major inflow event, a series of smaller inflows in 2003 supplied the extra oxygen transport. Therefore, the strength of a major inflow event alone cannot be used to predict the oxygenation impact. Instead, it is necessary to consider smaller events, in particular those occurring just before and after a major inflow event, as well. An element tagging method showed that the share of oxygen imported across the Danish Straits on the total oxygen arriving at the central Eastern Baltic Sea is between 10% and 20%. Therefore, the oxygen concentration of the inflowing water seems to be of less importance for the oxygenation effect on the central Baltic Sea due to the strong dilution effect. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.