On the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia on the example of the region of the European North of Russia

Abstract

Rationale. During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a sharp increase in the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in Russia and the Republic of Karelia (RK). Given the high significance of the problem, it is necessary to clarify the causes of the current epidemiological situation. The purpose of the work: to assess the incidence of CAP, not associated with COVID-19, in the adult population of the Republic of Karelia aged 18 years older in 2011–2019 in the administrative-territorial divisions of the republic, a comparison of its existing and projected levels in 2020–2021. Material and method. A retrospective observational epidemiological study was conducted based on the analysis of statistical data of the Republican Medical Information and Analytical Center of the Ministry of Health of the RK on the incidence of CAP, not associated with COVID-19, in the population aged 18 years and older in 2011–2021. Relative values, indicators of the dynamic series are used. To differentiate the administrative-territorial divisions of the RK by incidence in 2011–2019 the method of k-means cluster analysis was applied. To build a forecast for the incidence of CAP, not associated with COVID-19, for 2020–2021 used additive regression model for time series. Results. Among the districts, 3 clusters were identified for the incidence of non-coronavirus CAP in 2011–2019 with the worst epidemiological situation in Olonetsky. The actual incidence exceeded the predicted one in 2020 in 11 and in 2021 in 9 territories of the region, which confirms the impact of the pandemic on the incidence. Conclusion. There are territories in the republic with a “traditionally” high incidence of CAP, and the COVID-19 pandemic has made a significant contribution to its increase.