On the impact of stochastic modeling of occupant behavior on the energy use of office buildings

Abstract

The reliability of building performance simulation is hindered by several uncertainties, with aleatory uncertainty due to occupant behavior being one of the most critical. The present study aims to assess the propagation of uncertainty due to the adoption of stochastic models for modeling Occupant Presence and Actions (OPAs) available in the literature on the annual electric energy use of a reference office building. To this purpose, a global sensitivity analysis was designed and carried out by analyzing model inputs and energy outputs of 144 permutations of 15 different stochastic models for OPAs for a total of 7200 simulations. Building energy use computed considering stochastic OPAs modeling resulted in being sensibly higher than the reference value estimated assuming scheduled occupancy and rule-based occupant’s actions as suggested by reference standards. The median value of the electric energy use was 58.6% higher than the base case electric energy use. Furthermore, the stochastic models used to model window operation have the highest effect on energy output, followed by light switch-off, and occupancy models. Light switch-on models showed a lower influence on the overall building energy performance. Furthermore, the Generalized Estimating Equations method was adopted to assess the interdependence among stochastic models for OPA and showed that changing the stochastic model in window operation, occupancy estimation, and light switch-off behavior generates a considerable difference in building’s energy performance. Contrariwise, the available stochastic models for light switch-on and blind operation perform quite similarly among each other and have a limited impact on a building’s energy performance.