On the impact of critical factors to honeydew honey production: the case of Marchalina hellenica and pine honey

Abstract

Honeydew honey represents about 60% of the annual honey production, mainly pine and fir honey, in Europe and more than 70% of the annual honey production in Greece. Pine honey produced from the honeydew secretions of Marchalina hellenica (Coccoidea: Marchalinidae) is the main category of honeydew honey in Greece, representing about 60% of the annual honey production. In the past, the rate of honeydew production by Marchalina hellenica was believed to be regular and steady every year. However, beekeepers have noted a decrease in the quantity of honeydew in recent years. Therefore, the establishment of a forecasting model of honeydew flow will be of great benefit to beekeepers, honey bees, and the rural economy. In the present work, we employ the Cumulative Logit Model to prove that temperature, and more specifically the number of cold days in February, is a significant parameter to the life cycle of Marchalina hellenica and construct a statistically significant forecasting model.