Abstract
The rapid Arctic summer sea ice reduction in the last decade has lead to debates in the maritime industries on the possibility of an increase in cargo transportation in the region. Average sailing times on the North Sea Route along the Siberian Coast have fallen from 20 days in the 1990s to 11 days in 2012–2013, attributed to easing sea ice conditions along the Siberian coast. However, the economic risk of exploiting the Arctic shipping routes is substantial. Here a detailed high-resolution projection of ocean and sea ice to the end of the 21st century forced with the RCP8.5 IPCC emission scenario is used to examine navigability of the Arctic sea routes. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean previously covered by pack ice to the wind and surface waves leads to Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone. The emerging state of the Arctic Ocean features more fragmented thinner sea ice, stronger winds, ocean currents and waves. By the mid 21st century, summer season sailing times along the route via the North Pole are estimated to be 13–17 days, which could make this route as fast as the North Sea Route.
Highlights
The exploitation of shipping routes in the Arctic Ocean can, in principle, reduce the navigational distances between Europe and Asia by about 40 percent, saving fuel and reducing CO2 emissions [10]
1 emission savings), asserting that this would not necessary be the case for liner 2 shipping, as an uncertainty in schedule reliability on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is a principal obstacle and, in 3 the short term, this route would first be of an interest for bulk shipping
Schøyen and Bråthen estimated that the NSR 9 reduces the sailing time between Yokohama and London by 44 percent, as compared to the 10 route via the Suez Canal, if the same average speed is maintained on these two routes [10]
Summary
The exploitation of shipping routes in the Arctic Ocean can, in principle, reduce the navigational distances between Europe and Asia by about 40 percent, saving fuel and reducing CO2 emissions [10]. Schøyen and Bråthen analysed a potential reduction in sailing time, fuel and CO2 emission savings for two types of bulk cargo vessels sailing along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) instead of via the Suez Canal [10]. Based on Arctic sea ice 2 and other environmental conditions characteristic of the pre-2000s, the International Northern 3 Sea Route Program (INSROP) estimated that the Arctic shipping route along the NSR could 4 save about 10 days of sailing (a reduction of about 50 percent) for general type cargo vessels, 5 compared to the shipping route from Asia to Europe via the Suez Canal. The ship spent 7.4 days on the NSR, at an averaged speed of 14.1 knots (1 knot=1nm per hour) (NSR Information Office, 2015), saving 27 percent of the sailing time by using the NSR, instead of 16 the route via the Suez Canal (35 days vs. 48 days respectively)
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