Abstract
In this paper, a cascade forward back propagation neural CFBN network model and an ordinary least squares OLS regression model are fused together to form a hybrid model called 'hybrid OLS-CFBN' technique. The hybrid model was applied on the crude oil data of the Nigerian national petroleum corporation NNPC to determine the forecasting performance of the model. The fusion was made by the Bayesian model averaging BMA technique, to obtain a combined forecast from the two separate methods, that is, the CFBN and the OLS methods. The fusion produced the hybrid OLS-CFBN model which was used on the difference and log difference series of the NNPC data. The results indicate that the combined forecast have better forecasting performance greater than the standalone methods on the difference series based on the mean square error sense. The analysis for this study was simulated using MATLAB software, version 8.03.
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