On the extreme rainfall events during the southwest monsoon season in northeast regions of the Indian subcontinent

Abstract

AbstractHydrological disasters are recurrent over the northeast Indian region (NEI) due to heavy downpours within a short span of time. Therefore, the characteristics of rainfall extremes during the southwest monsoon over the NEI, their evolution and dissipation features, are discussed using rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 V7 and the Climate Prediction Center for 16 years from 2000 to 2015. Circulation features during the lead–lag of extreme events are also examined using the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis products. Thirty‐two extreme events such that rainfall of the day exceeds the 90th percentile were identified. During the extreme events, heavy rainfall is located mainly in the NEI without much spread in the aerial domain. The highest number of extreme rain events is found in July, followed by June and August. Trend analysis of the rainfall indicates a significant decrease in low rainfall events and this decreasing trend is compensated by the significant increasing trend in very heavy (>95 percentile) to extremely heavy (>99 percentile) rainfall events. The average life of the extreme rainfall events is found to be about 3 days during which the NEI receives more than 100 mm/day; however, on individual examination, this ranges from 2 to 5 days. A strengthening of the southerly component of lower level wind from the Bay of Bengal and an updraft due to convergence at 850 hPa over the region favours the rainfall peak. The sea level pressure anomaly gradient and vertical velocity show a sudden development of conditions favourable for a heavy downpour over the northeast region.